EY-Parthenon expects U.S. dealmaking to grow in 2026, with corporate buyers leading the rebound while private equity remains more cautious. The firm’s 2026 M&A outlook projects an 8% increase in U.S. deal volume for transactions valued at more than $100 million.
The forecast is based on the EY-Parthenon Deal Barometer, which combines real-time U.S. transaction data with macroeconomic modeling. EY-Parthenon said deal value growth is expected to outpace deal volume growth as companies pursue larger strategic transactions tied to AI, market positioning, and operational transformation.
Corporate M&A is expected to be the stronger side of the market. EY-Parthenon projects corporate deal volume will rise 11% in 2026, following a 22% increase in the first quarter compared with the same period last year. The firm said strong corporate profits and a more favorable regulatory backdrop are giving companies more confidence to pursue acquisitions.
Survey data from EY-Parthenon also shows that 65% of U.S. CEOs are pursuing M&A to gain access to technology, talent, and operating capabilities. Another 46% are planning divestments to release capital, reduce complexity, and sharpen strategic focus.
Private equity activity is expected to remain more restrained. EY-Parthenon projects flat PE deal volume for 2026 after an 11% first-quarter decline, with general partners taking a more selective approach amid valuation shifts, higher interest rates, AI disruption, and geopolitical uncertainty.
Mitch Berlin, EY Americas Vice Chair of EY-Parthenon, said private equity activity could be supported by a “record-breaking rotation into asset-heavy sectors, such as energy and infrastructure,” where tangible cash flows may offer a hedge in a higher-for-longer rate environment.