A recent report from Oliver Wyman reveals a tempered outlook for the global commercial aircraft fleet and maintenance market over the next decade. Projections indicate a rise from 28,400 to 36,400 commercial aircraft worldwide by 2034, with a growth rate of 2.5%—a downgrade from the initial 2.9% estimate. Contributing factors include lackluster economic expansion, regulatory constraints, Regionally, Oliver Wyman predicts robust growth in the Indian commercial aircraft fleet at 9.7% annually, followed by Eastern Europe at 7%, and China at 4.5%. Conversely, the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), Western Europe, and North America are poised for more modest fleet expansions at 1-2% annually. Despite these challenges, the global airline fleet returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, hinting at a potential return to genuine growth in 2024. Additionally, Oliver Wyman expects a 1.8% annual increase in spending on aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services through 2034.
