Global Aircraft Fleet and Maintenance Market Growth Slows Amid Economic Challenges and Supply Chain Constraints

A recent report from Oliver Wyman reveals a tempered outlook for the global commercial aircraft fleet and maintenance market over the next decade. Projections indicate a rise from 28,400 to 36,400 commercial aircraft worldwide by 2034, with a growth rate of 2.5%—a downgrade from the initial 2.9% estimate. Contributing factors include lackluster economic expansion, regulatory constraints, limited aircraft production, and an ongoing pilot shortage. Aerospace production challenges, such as turbofan recalls and reliability issues with competing models, coupled with Boeing's 737 Max production slowdown, add complexity to the industry's landscape. The report underscores acute pilot shortages expected in 2026, coinciding with the weakest global economic growth since the early 1990s.

Regionally, Oliver Wyman predicts robust growth in the Indian commercial aircraft fleet at 9.7% annually, followed by Eastern Europe at 7%, and China at 4.5%. Conversely, the Asia-Pacific region (excluding China), Western Europe, and North America are poised for more modest fleet expansions at 1-2% annually. Despite these challenges, the global airline fleet returned to pre-pandemic levels in 2023, hinting at a potential return to genuine growth in 2024. Additionally, Oliver Wyman expects a 1.8% annual increase in spending on aircraft maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) services through 2034.

Become a Subscriber

Please purchase a subscription to continue reading this article.

Subscribe Now

Read More