The U.S. asset management industry is grappling with challenges posed by higher interest rates and inflationary pressures, creating both obstacles and opportunities, according to McKinsey & Co.'s annual report on North American asset managers. The report suggests that while the industry faces headwinds, a select group of firms appears poised to thrive in the evolving market landscape.
The past 18 months have seen a shift from tailwinds that supported revenues for over a decade to the headwinds of rising interest rates and inflation. McKinsey's annual global asset management survey indicates a widening gap in profit margins between top- and bottom-quartile performers, reflecting the increased strain on money managers amid the changing economic environment.
Firms with a diverse range of offerings, a broad portfolio orientation, and the ability to scale winning strategies have garnered a disproportionate share of assets in motion over the last two years. McKinsey executives emphasize that in a more challenging environment, the number of firms expecting organic growth will likely decrease.
While the industry experienced a relatively resilient performance last year despite an 11% drop in revenues, McKinsey suggests that beneath the surface, some firms are facing increasing difficulties. The report likens the business to an iceberg, stating that it is "steadily melting for a number of folks in this industry." The prolonged bull market, which provided managers with persistent beta gains, masked underlying issues.
According to Joseph Lai, a partner at McKinsey, the industry is not returning to past structural patterns. The current market conditions, characterized by elevated rates and potential consolidation, represent a "new normal" rather than a return to the past.
The report identifies several areas where opportunities and challenges intersect. For instance, a record $600 billion will flow into money market funds in 2023, presenting an opportunity for asset managers to capitalize on cash investments. With higher rates eliminating fee waivers, manager revenues for investing in these pools doubled to $13 billion over the first eight months of 2023.
Fixed income is gaining attention as institutional and wealth management clients rethink the asset class due to attractive yields. The report suggests that fixed income could capture a significant portion of the trillions of dollars likely to be put into play over the next five years.
Additionally, McKinsey highlights the potential role of asset managers in alternative market segments such as infrastructure and private credit as banks step back, contributing to a "once-in-a-generation transformation" of the financial markets ecosystem.
It underscores the importance of product and vehicle strategy, noting that while actively managed equity mutual funds experienced outflows, exchange-traded funds, collective investment trusts, and separately managed accounts saw net inflows of $500 billion. Choosing the right investment vehicles is increasingly crucial for the reinvention of active management.
McKinsey suggests that while the industry faces challenges, firms capable of adapting to the changing market dynamics and bolstering their value propositions stand to benefit from the significant opportunities presented by the evolving landscape.
